Momentum (EMA/RSI/ADX cross), original basket

BTCUSDT 4H Timeframe 2019-01-01 → 2026-07-31 Initial Capital: $10000 Leverage: 1x Fee: 0.10% Slippage: 0.02%
Total Return
+-12.25%
+$-1225.25
CAGR
-1.71%
Annualized
Sharpe Ratio
-0.072
Excellent
Sortino Ratio
-0.102
Excellent
Max Drawdown
-44.785%
-$-4478.5
Win Rate
23.81%
5 Wins / 21 Trades
Profit Factor
0.823
Excellent
Expectancy
1.40R
Per Trade

Equity Curve

Strategy Buy & Hold Drawdown

Drawdown

Max Drawdown: -44.785% Max Duration: 78 days

Monthly Returns (%)

Year JanFebMarAprMayJun JulAugSepOctNovDec
2026 -1.81 0.2 1.16 -1.13 2.87 2.51 -6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2025 9.08 -0.99 7.74 -2.85 0.25 -1.12 0.31 -5.36 -1.94 -2.64 1.48 0.81
2024 -8.42 -8.88 -0.69 -1.46 4.13 1.65 -3.28 2.05 0.24 -1.41 1.12 1.05
2023 2.74 1.5 2.51 7.14 13.62 -2.33 9.27 2.18 4.34 10.34 4.56 3.88
2022 2.64 2.29 -2.28 -0.0 -3.72 -1.8 -8.89 -11.27 -2.97 -4.77 2.77 2.31
2021 -2.25 -2.16 -1.24 2.78 -1.93 -3.1 -1.04 0.75 3.29 -2.13 -1.92 -0.88
2020 0.29 -2.21 0.37 0.52 1.06 -2.08 -1.77 -1.8 0.73 2.86 1.57 -2.36
2019 0.0 0.0 1.81 0.87 -1.19 -4.27 -0.43 -1.94 -0.47 -0.19 -1.89 0.11

Trade Distribution

Winning Trades 5 (23.81%)
Losing Trades 16 (38.69%)
Breakeven 0 (0.00%)
Total Trades: 21

Trade Return Distribution

Rolling Performance (252 Periods)

— Rolling Sharpe — Rolling CAGR — Rolling Volatility

Risk / Return Radar

Key Risk Metrics

Value at Risk (95%)-2.35%
Expected Shortfall (95%)+3.85%
Calmar Ratio2.12
Ulcer Index6.21
Omega Ratio1.72
Tail Ratio (95%)1.29
Recovery Factor1.89
Kelly Criterion18.43%
Exposure Time92.14%

Performance vs Benchmarks

Recent Trades

Entry Time Exit Time Symbol Side Qty Entry Price Exit Price P/L (USDT) Return % Duration
2022-08-03 2022-08-17 BTCUSDT Long 0.114103 $17527.9464 $13334.5536 $-480.0 -23.924% 40h
2022-08-17 2022-10-27 BTCUSDT Short 0.149986 $13334.5536 $17396.274 $-611.81 -30.46% 204h
2022-10-27 2024-01-30 BTCUSDT Long 0.114967 $17396.274 $47717.5631 +$3480.47 +174.298% 1332h
2024-01-30 2024-02-20 BTCUSDT Short 0.041913 $47717.5631 $64612.6282 $-710.84 -35.406% 60h
2024-02-20 2024-03-15 BTCUSDT Long 0.030954 $64612.6282 $48908.9594 $-487.6 -24.304% 68h
2024-03-15 2024-11-11 BTCUSDT Short 0.040892 $48908.9594 $39485.1605 +$383.75 +19.268% 696h
2024-11-11 2025-06-20 BTCUSDT Long 0.050652 $39485.1605 $62299.0372 +$1152.41 +57.778% 640h
2025-06-20 2025-08-16 BTCUSDT Short 0.032103 $62299.0372 $66438.6599 $-135.03 -6.645% 164h
2025-08-16 2025-09-03 BTCUSDT Long 0.030103 $66438.6599 $56964.0032 $-286.93 -14.261% 52h
2025-09-03 2026-07-24 BTCUSDT Short 0.03511 $56964.0032 $69869.4343 $-455.56 -22.655% 936h

Walk Forward Analysis

Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
Segment 4
Segment 5
-10.57%
Sharpe -1.5
+0.8%
Sharpe 1.2
-19.57%
Sharpe -1.5
-5.31%
Sharpe -1.5
-5.97%
Sharpe -1.5

Monte Carlo Simulation

2,000 Runs
Best
95%
75%
Median
25%
5%
Worst
Median Return: +172.45%
Best Case: +612.34%
Worst Case: -28.45%
95% Confidence: +401.23%
5% Confidence: -12.36%