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Momentum (EMA/RSI/ADX cross), original basket
BTCUSDT
4H Timeframe
2019-01-01 → 2026-07-31
Initial Capital: $10000
Leverage: 1x
Fee: 0.10%
Slippage: 0.02%
Total Return
+26.26%
+$2625.77
CAGR
3.12%
Annualized
Sharpe Ratio
0.558
Excellent
Sortino Ratio
0.82
Excellent
Max Drawdown
-9.806%
-$-980.6
Win Rate
53.33%
8 Wins / 15 Trades
Profit Factor
2.309
Excellent
Expectancy
1.40R
Per Trade
Equity Curve
Strategy
Buy & Hold
Drawdown
Drawdown
Max Drawdown: -9.806%
Max Duration: 78 days
Monthly Returns (%)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.12 | 2.22 | 0.3 | 0.74 | -0.05 | 0.04 | 1.44 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.37 | 1.33 | -0.03 | 0.39 | 0.9 | -4.51 | -1.37 | -2.71 | 1.96 | 1.87 | -1.27 | -0.02 |
| 2024 | 1.78 | -0.45 | 0.39 | -0.42 | 0.62 | -1.42 | -2.02 | -0.69 | 3.96 | -1.21 | -0.11 | 1.87 |
| 2023 | -1.05 | -1.4 | -0.54 | -2.45 | 0.56 | 1.64 | 1.75 | -0.1 | 1.69 | -0.15 | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| 2022 | -0.58 | 0.78 | -1.09 | 1.28 | -1.32 | 0.57 | 0.12 | -1.09 | -1.23 | 0.94 | 2.41 | 0.27 |
| 2021 | 0.86 | 1.1 | 0.38 | -0.06 | 0.82 | -0.17 | -0.05 | -0.24 | -1.19 | 3.79 | -0.99 | -0.05 |
| 2020 | -0.39 | 0.59 | 1.76 | 0.77 | 2.42 | 1.54 | -1.36 | -0.3 | -0.51 | 0.36 | 0.64 | -0.49 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.79 | -0.52 | 5.32 | 2.03 | 3.58 | -3.54 | -0.84 | 1.83 | -0.88 | -0.08 |
Trade Distribution
Winning Trades 8 (53.33%)
Losing Trades 7 (38.69%)
Breakeven 0 (0.00%)
Total Trades: 15
Trade Return Distribution
Rolling Performance (252 Periods)
— Rolling Sharpe
— Rolling CAGR
— Rolling Volatility
Risk / Return Radar
Key Risk Metrics
Value at Risk (95%)-2.35%
Expected Shortfall (95%)+3.85%
Calmar Ratio2.12
Ulcer Index6.21
Omega Ratio1.72
Tail Ratio (95%)1.29
Recovery Factor1.89
Kelly Criterion18.43%
Exposure Time92.14%
Performance vs Benchmarks
Recent Trades
| Entry Time | Exit Time | Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry Price | Exit Price | P/L (USDT) | Return % | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-16 | 2022-07-12 | BTCUSDT | Short | 0.282835 | $7071.2619 | $7554.1695 | $-138.72 | -6.829% | 340h |
| 2022-07-12 | 2022-09-29 | BTCUSDT | Long | 0.264754 | $7554.1695 | $7619.8039 | +$15.36 | +0.869% | 228h |
| 2022-09-29 | 2023-03-04 | BTCUSDT | Short | 0.262474 | $7619.8039 | $7781.8473 | $-44.57 | -2.127% | 452h |
| 2023-03-04 | 2023-04-12 | BTCUSDT | Long | 0.257008 | $7781.8473 | $6540.6536 | $-320.68 | -15.95% | 112h |
| 2023-04-12 | 2024-07-05 | BTCUSDT | Short | 0.30578 | $6540.6536 | $4207.8489 | +$712.04 | +35.666% | 1300h |
| 2024-07-05 | 2024-07-28 | BTCUSDT | Long | 0.475302 | $4207.8489 | $3658.5107 | $-262.84 | -13.055% | 68h |
| 2024-07-28 | 2024-11-22 | BTCUSDT | Short | 0.546671 | $3658.5107 | $3541.7043 | +$61.92 | +3.193% | 336h |
| 2024-11-22 | 2025-06-13 | BTCUSDT | Long | 0.5647 | $3541.7043 | $4075.6969 | +$299.24 | +15.077% | 588h |
| 2025-06-13 | 2025-08-31 | BTCUSDT | Short | 0.490714 | $4075.6969 | $5165.7955 | $-537.46 | -26.746% | 228h |
| 2025-08-31 | 2025-12-29 | BTCUSDT | Long | 0.387162 | $5165.7955 | $5672.1559 | +$193.85 | +9.802% | 348h |
Walk Forward Analysis
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
Segment 4
Segment 5
Train
Test
+7.26%
Sharpe 1.5
Train
Test
+2.58%
Sharpe 1.5
Train
Test
-4.72%
Sharpe -1.5
Train
Test
+3.45%
Sharpe 1.5
Train
Test
-3.48%
Sharpe -1.5
Monte Carlo Simulation
2,000 RunsBest
95%
75%
Median
25%
5%
Worst
Median Return: +172.45%
Best Case: +612.34%
Worst Case: -28.45%
95% Confidence: +401.23%
5% Confidence: -12.36%