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Momentum (EMA/RSI/ADX cross), original basket
BTCUSDT
4H Timeframe
2019-01-01 → 2026-07-31
Initial Capital: $10000
Leverage: 1x
Fee: 0.10%
Slippage: 0.02%
Total Return
+-12.25%
+$-1225.25
CAGR
-1.71%
Annualized
Sharpe Ratio
-0.072
Excellent
Sortino Ratio
-0.102
Excellent
Max Drawdown
-44.785%
-$-4478.5
Win Rate
23.81%
5 Wins / 21 Trades
Profit Factor
0.823
Excellent
Expectancy
1.40R
Per Trade
Equity Curve
Strategy
Buy & Hold
Drawdown
Drawdown
Max Drawdown: -44.785%
Max Duration: 78 days
Monthly Returns (%)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.81 | 0.2 | 1.16 | -1.13 | 2.87 | 2.51 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 9.08 | -0.99 | 7.74 | -2.85 | 0.25 | -1.12 | 0.31 | -5.36 | -1.94 | -2.64 | 1.48 | 0.81 |
| 2024 | -8.42 | -8.88 | -0.69 | -1.46 | 4.13 | 1.65 | -3.28 | 2.05 | 0.24 | -1.41 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| 2023 | 2.74 | 1.5 | 2.51 | 7.14 | 13.62 | -2.33 | 9.27 | 2.18 | 4.34 | 10.34 | 4.56 | 3.88 |
| 2022 | 2.64 | 2.29 | -2.28 | -0.0 | -3.72 | -1.8 | -8.89 | -11.27 | -2.97 | -4.77 | 2.77 | 2.31 |
| 2021 | -2.25 | -2.16 | -1.24 | 2.78 | -1.93 | -3.1 | -1.04 | 0.75 | 3.29 | -2.13 | -1.92 | -0.88 |
| 2020 | 0.29 | -2.21 | 0.37 | 0.52 | 1.06 | -2.08 | -1.77 | -1.8 | 0.73 | 2.86 | 1.57 | -2.36 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.81 | 0.87 | -1.19 | -4.27 | -0.43 | -1.94 | -0.47 | -0.19 | -1.89 | 0.11 |
Trade Distribution
Winning Trades 5 (23.81%)
Losing Trades 16 (38.69%)
Breakeven 0 (0.00%)
Total Trades: 21
Trade Return Distribution
Rolling Performance (252 Periods)
— Rolling Sharpe
— Rolling CAGR
— Rolling Volatility
Risk / Return Radar
Key Risk Metrics
Value at Risk (95%)-2.35%
Expected Shortfall (95%)+3.85%
Calmar Ratio2.12
Ulcer Index6.21
Omega Ratio1.72
Tail Ratio (95%)1.29
Recovery Factor1.89
Kelly Criterion18.43%
Exposure Time92.14%
Performance vs Benchmarks
Recent Trades
| Entry Time | Exit Time | Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry Price | Exit Price | P/L (USDT) | Return % | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-08-03 | 2022-08-17 | BTCUSDT | Long | 0.114103 | $17527.9464 | $13334.5536 | $-480.0 | -23.924% | 40h |
| 2022-08-17 | 2022-10-27 | BTCUSDT | Short | 0.149986 | $13334.5536 | $17396.274 | $-611.81 | -30.46% | 204h |
| 2022-10-27 | 2024-01-30 | BTCUSDT | Long | 0.114967 | $17396.274 | $47717.5631 | +$3480.47 | +174.298% | 1332h |
| 2024-01-30 | 2024-02-20 | BTCUSDT | Short | 0.041913 | $47717.5631 | $64612.6282 | $-710.84 | -35.406% | 60h |
| 2024-02-20 | 2024-03-15 | BTCUSDT | Long | 0.030954 | $64612.6282 | $48908.9594 | $-487.6 | -24.304% | 68h |
| 2024-03-15 | 2024-11-11 | BTCUSDT | Short | 0.040892 | $48908.9594 | $39485.1605 | +$383.75 | +19.268% | 696h |
| 2024-11-11 | 2025-06-20 | BTCUSDT | Long | 0.050652 | $39485.1605 | $62299.0372 | +$1152.41 | +57.778% | 640h |
| 2025-06-20 | 2025-08-16 | BTCUSDT | Short | 0.032103 | $62299.0372 | $66438.6599 | $-135.03 | -6.645% | 164h |
| 2025-08-16 | 2025-09-03 | BTCUSDT | Long | 0.030103 | $66438.6599 | $56964.0032 | $-286.93 | -14.261% | 52h |
| 2025-09-03 | 2026-07-24 | BTCUSDT | Short | 0.03511 | $56964.0032 | $69869.4343 | $-455.56 | -22.655% | 936h |
Walk Forward Analysis
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
Segment 4
Segment 5
Train
Test
-10.57%
Sharpe -1.5
Train
Test
+0.8%
Sharpe 1.2
Train
Test
-19.57%
Sharpe -1.5
Train
Test
-5.31%
Sharpe -1.5
Train
Test
-5.97%
Sharpe -1.5
Monte Carlo Simulation
2,000 RunsBest
95%
75%
Median
25%
5%
Worst
Median Return: +172.45%
Best Case: +612.34%
Worst Case: -28.45%
95% Confidence: +401.23%
5% Confidence: -12.36%