Momentum (EMA/RSI/ADX cross), original basket

BTCUSDT 4H Timeframe 2019-01-01 → 2026-07-31 Initial Capital: $10000 Leverage: 1x Fee: 0.10% Slippage: 0.02%
Total Return
+26.26%
+$2625.77
CAGR
3.12%
Annualized
Sharpe Ratio
0.558
Excellent
Sortino Ratio
0.82
Excellent
Max Drawdown
-9.806%
-$-980.6
Win Rate
53.33%
8 Wins / 15 Trades
Profit Factor
2.309
Excellent
Expectancy
1.40R
Per Trade

Equity Curve

Strategy Buy & Hold Drawdown

Drawdown

Max Drawdown: -9.806% Max Duration: 78 days

Monthly Returns (%)

Year JanFebMarAprMayJun JulAugSepOctNovDec
2026 0.12 2.22 0.3 0.74 -0.05 0.04 1.44 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2025 0.37 1.33 -0.03 0.39 0.9 -4.51 -1.37 -2.71 1.96 1.87 -1.27 -0.02
2024 1.78 -0.45 0.39 -0.42 0.62 -1.42 -2.02 -0.69 3.96 -1.21 -0.11 1.87
2023 -1.05 -1.4 -0.54 -2.45 0.56 1.64 1.75 -0.1 1.69 -0.15 0.23 0.44
2022 -0.58 0.78 -1.09 1.28 -1.32 0.57 0.12 -1.09 -1.23 0.94 2.41 0.27
2021 0.86 1.1 0.38 -0.06 0.82 -0.17 -0.05 -0.24 -1.19 3.79 -0.99 -0.05
2020 -0.39 0.59 1.76 0.77 2.42 1.54 -1.36 -0.3 -0.51 0.36 0.64 -0.49
2019 0.0 0.0 2.79 -0.52 5.32 2.03 3.58 -3.54 -0.84 1.83 -0.88 -0.08

Trade Distribution

Winning Trades 8 (53.33%)
Losing Trades 7 (38.69%)
Breakeven 0 (0.00%)
Total Trades: 15

Trade Return Distribution

Rolling Performance (252 Periods)

— Rolling Sharpe — Rolling CAGR — Rolling Volatility

Risk / Return Radar

Key Risk Metrics

Value at Risk (95%)-2.35%
Expected Shortfall (95%)+3.85%
Calmar Ratio2.12
Ulcer Index6.21
Omega Ratio1.72
Tail Ratio (95%)1.29
Recovery Factor1.89
Kelly Criterion18.43%
Exposure Time92.14%

Performance vs Benchmarks

Recent Trades

Entry Time Exit Time Symbol Side Qty Entry Price Exit Price P/L (USDT) Return % Duration
2022-03-16 2022-07-12 BTCUSDT Short 0.282835 $7071.2619 $7554.1695 $-138.72 -6.829% 340h
2022-07-12 2022-09-29 BTCUSDT Long 0.264754 $7554.1695 $7619.8039 +$15.36 +0.869% 228h
2022-09-29 2023-03-04 BTCUSDT Short 0.262474 $7619.8039 $7781.8473 $-44.57 -2.127% 452h
2023-03-04 2023-04-12 BTCUSDT Long 0.257008 $7781.8473 $6540.6536 $-320.68 -15.95% 112h
2023-04-12 2024-07-05 BTCUSDT Short 0.30578 $6540.6536 $4207.8489 +$712.04 +35.666% 1300h
2024-07-05 2024-07-28 BTCUSDT Long 0.475302 $4207.8489 $3658.5107 $-262.84 -13.055% 68h
2024-07-28 2024-11-22 BTCUSDT Short 0.546671 $3658.5107 $3541.7043 +$61.92 +3.193% 336h
2024-11-22 2025-06-13 BTCUSDT Long 0.5647 $3541.7043 $4075.6969 +$299.24 +15.077% 588h
2025-06-13 2025-08-31 BTCUSDT Short 0.490714 $4075.6969 $5165.7955 $-537.46 -26.746% 228h
2025-08-31 2025-12-29 BTCUSDT Long 0.387162 $5165.7955 $5672.1559 +$193.85 +9.802% 348h

Walk Forward Analysis

Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
Segment 4
Segment 5
+7.26%
Sharpe 1.5
+2.58%
Sharpe 1.5
-4.72%
Sharpe -1.5
+3.45%
Sharpe 1.5
-3.48%
Sharpe -1.5

Monte Carlo Simulation

2,000 Runs
Best
95%
75%
Median
25%
5%
Worst
Median Return: +172.45%
Best Case: +612.34%
Worst Case: -28.45%
95% Confidence: +401.23%
5% Confidence: -12.36%